It’s Friday and the sun is shining – this can only mean one thing (well two things actually) – we are coming to the end of the season and Dukla Praha are playing at home.
Dukla Praha v Sigma Olomouc
Dukla welcome Sigma Olomouc to Prague this evening in rude health and in search of a sixth consecutive home win. However, while their opponents, fourth placed Olomouc, are in a desperate run of form I expect the visitors to be a stern test for Luboš Kozel’s side. Olomouc rallied from two goals down against Mlada Boleslav last weekend to snatch a 2-2 draw and will head into tonight’s game with cause for optimism.
Dukla’s record against the top teams in the division has been found wanting, their 5-1 victory over Jablonec two weeks ago was their only win against a top side this season. Nevertheless, the hosts have been consistently involved in high scoring games this season and the odds against price of 21/20 on Over 2.5 Goals looks an absolute steal.
Let’s take a look at the stats.
Dukla games have averaged 2.8 goals this season and 14 out of 24 games have gone over 2.5 goals (the second highest in the league) and 10 out of 24 games have gone over 3.5 goals. Woof. Goal-tastic.
Below are the Dukla’s results against the top sides in the league:
– Dukla have failed to score only once in 6 games against the big boys
The only reason I can find for the bookies offering such a big price on Over 2.5 Goals is the fact Olomouc have been fairly conservative in front of goal. Their games average 2.4 goals compared to Dukla’s 2.8 and only 10 out of 24 league games have gone over 2.5 this season.
But four of their last five games in all competitions have seen at least three goals and I believe this trend will continue.
You maybe tempted to back Dukla to win the game outright at 13/10 (it’s a very good price to be fair) but I suspect their winning sequence at home is due to come to an end so is Olomouc’s poor form.
Instead I prefer the goals markets.
Selections: Over 2.5 Goals at 21/20 (Bet365) and Both Teams to Score at 4/5 (William Hill)